Posted by Al Boek, Founder
American Energy Conservation Group
Redding,CA. 96003
Producing NegWatts...Since 1981
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Repower America
* The Plan|
* Press
Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency
+ Renewable Generation
Renewable Generation
+ Unified National Smart Grid
Unified National Smart Grid
= 100% Clean Electricity
100% Clean Electricity
and Clean Plug-in Cars
Clean Plug-in Cars
The Analysis
What does it mean that all electricity generation within 10 years will be met only by zero-carbon sources of power? The We Campaign, with assistance and advice from dozens of energy experts, assessed the potential for meeting electricity demand from a combination of well-understood sources: improved energy efficiency, renewable sources like wind, solar, and geothermal, and fossil fuel power plants that capture and store their carbon pollution. Generation from existing carbon-free sources like conventional hydropower and nuclear power plants was assumed to remain unchanged from current levels.
The assessments uncovered a variety of plausible Repower America scenarios. These scenarios are illustrative: none represent the precise electricity mix in ten years. New and unanticipated technologies will emerge. Others will play a lesser role as competition drives the market. The exact timing of the ramp-down of conventional fossil fuel plants will be in part determined by the ramp-up of the various renewable plants, storage types, and grid advancement.
These scenarios demonstrate, however, that technology availability is not the factor limiting achievement of the Repower America goal. It will be possible to achieve a 100% clean power mix over the next ten years if appropriate policies are put in place to unleash the technologies’ vast potential.
The Scenarios
We considered one reference case and two alternative scenarios for the US electricity mix in a decade and compared them to today’s portfolio.1 For context, the bar chart below shows the 2006 electricity resource mix and the Energy Information Administration’s reference case forecast for 2020.
* 2006 DOE Actual Generation: The most recent data available, the 2006 mix from the US Department of Energy (DOE), is a good representation of today’s generation: predominantly coal, nuclear, natural gas, conventional hydropower, and small contributions from renewable energy.
* 2020 EIA Reference Case Projection (Repower America projected demand target): This is the DOE’s Energy Information Administration projected electricity generation in 2020 under the 2008 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case. It assumes that electricity generation grows from approximately 4 million GWh in 2006 to 4.7 million GWh in 2020. This 2020 level of generation represents the target for the Repower America scenarios. The EIA’s projections include additional conventional coal and natural gas with modest increases in renewable power to meet growing demand.
* Repower America Scenario A: Energy efficiency policies and programs reduce demand by 28%, nuclear and hydropower – neither of which emits CO2 – remain at current levels, America ramps up wind consistent with recent sectoral growth rates, solar thermal with storage is deployed at scale, and solar PV and geothermal grow at levels consistent with the projections of industry experts.
* Repower America Scenario B: Like Scenario A, includes a mix of efficiency, renewables, and existing generation but assumes fossil fuel industries deploy approximately 20 large coal and natural gas power plants that capture and sequester their CO2 emissions (these are known as coal and natural gas plants with CCS). Wind levels are reduced commensurate with the additional contribution from fossil power with CCS.
* Additional Scenarios: As referenced earlier, there are numerous possible pathways for reaching 100% clean electricity by 2020 — it would be impossible to predict exactly what technologies will comprise the mix. Once the transformation to a system that is highly efficient, renewables–based and connected via a unified smart grid commences, a variety of configurations become possible. For example, industry experts indicate that the 2020 generation mix could include larger contributions from geothermal, solar photovoltaics, and other rapidly emerging renewable technologies — along with new ways to improve efficiency. A modernized grid diminishes the magnitude of traditional baseload plant required for system stability, potentially allowing decreased reliance on aging nuclear power resources. For reference, the ranges described below represent Scenarios A, B, and portfolios with higher geothermal and solar PV levels supported by industry analysis.
The Scenario Details:
Start with carbon-free power at today’s levels: In all scenarios, today’s generation from nuclear and conventional hydropower is held constant. These two sources combined provide over 1 million GWh or 23% of the 2020 projected demand.
Immediately begin an efficiency upgrade – getting more benefit from the electricity we produce: With a suite of national policies and programs, energy efficiency improvements achieve 28% reduction from the 2020 projected demand. Implementing this efficiency target will immediately help families and businesses save money on utility bills.
Continue growth of geothermal power: Baseload geothermal power, which harnesses the energy stored below the ground and has been operating in the US for decades, will continue to grow during the time period. The scenarios assume a total of 20-25GW installed within 10 years or about 3%-4% of the projected demand (or 4%-5% of the annual generation). The scenarios assume the geothermal is mainly conventional hydrothermal power within the timeframe.
Ramp up solar thermal with storage, which can produce power at night: Based on proven technologies, grow the manufacturing capacity and installation of solar thermal power to levels that will support daytime and at least 8 hours of nighttime power. The analysis assumes 10%-13% of the projected demand (or 14%-18% of the annual generation), or 110-180GW.
Continue America’s leadership on wind: Continuing the double digit levels of growth seen over the past several years for this proven technology, scale up wind to 315-400 GW or between 23%-27% of the projected demand (and 33%-37% of the annual generation). This amount of wind would require 125,000-200,000 2-2.5 MW wind turbines distributed around the country in locations on-shore and off-shore. For comparison, 300,000 airplanes were built in the US during WWII.2
Continued solar PV growth at industry expected rates: Based on the average annual growth rate of 40% since 2000 and the recent announcements for gigawatt-scale solar PV projects in California, continue industry growth to achieve 3%-6% of the projected demand (or 4%-8% of the annual generation). At the lower end (Scenarios A and B), this is 65-75GW, which is in the range of the CleanEdge “Utility Solar Assessment” for 2020-2021. At the high end, it is 120-150 GW, which brings CleanEdge’s forecast for those levels forward by three years.3
Coal and natural gas that captures and safely stores the carbon pollution: Coal and natural gas power that are free of carbon pollution can be part of Repower America. Although no such power plants exist in America today, a variety of experts indicate that with significant research and testing, a few such pilot power plants may be in operation within 10 years. As a result, Scenario B assumes 20 GW of large scale plants or about 4% of the generation. Other than these facilities, which must remove at least 85% of the CO2 pollution and safely store it underground, fossil fuel generation is excluded from the Repower America clean electricity scenarios.
Other generation: The remainder of the generation will come from other sources. These include biomass power (the levels in EIA’s 2020 reference case are assumed), which can encompass many sources of carbon-free electricity like agricultural or wood residues and municipal waste, and, once it becomes proven, advanced hydropower that uses the energy from waves, currents, and tides (the scenarios do not assume specific levels of advanced hydro in the time frame).
Transmission and storage: An expanded and robust unified national smart grid that enables power everywhere to be interconnected, monitored, and supported by storage is an essential component of the Repower American plan. This requires a combination of upgrades and additional long-distance and short-distance high voltage transmission lines, advanced distribution systems with demand response and smart metering, and storage with today’s systems and new systems as they become available. See Unified National Smart Grid for more details.
Is materials or land availability a limiting factor?
There are virtually no material or land constraints in the scenarios. An analysis of the types of materials needed to Repower America shows that expansion of production and manufacture of many materials and components is required but the additional requirements are much less than or in line with other demands today. Using a 10-year average annual material requirement for steel, glass, and concrete, there does not appear to be any fundamental lack of materials. For example, the amount of steel required for production of 25,000 wind turbines in one year is equivalent to 8% of 2006 US steel production. Solar thermal requires significant production of glass, and wind requires significant expansion of materials for turbine blades. This manufacturing will expand jobs and local economies.
For land, wind estimates would require a total area approximately the size of West Virginia, although wind farms can be co-located with agriculture. And, if sited together, all of the estimated solar thermal would fit in an area equivalent to metropolitan Atlanta.
Experts Support Repower America Analysis
Validation
Find out what the experts are saying about the plan to Repower America with 100% clean electricity within 10 years.
References
* The Repower America goal is based on clean energy growth within the next decade. However, to ease comparisons of industry and government projections, the scenario analysis used a 2020 timeframe.
* http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/wwii_book_excerpt.html
* CleanEdge. “Utility Solar Assessment”. 2008.
A project of The Alliance for Climate Protection
Copyright © Repower America 2008. All Rights Reserved. Legal & Privacy | Contact Us
Repower America
* The Plan|
* Press
Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency
+ Renewable Generation
Renewable Generation
+ Unified National Smart Grid
Unified National Smart Grid
= 100% Clean Electricity
100% Clean Electricity
and Clean Plug-in Cars
Clean Plug-in Cars
The Analysis
What does it mean that all electricity generation within 10 years will be met only by zero-carbon sources of power? The We Campaign, with assistance and advice from dozens of energy experts, assessed the potential for meeting electricity demand from a combination of well-understood sources: improved energy efficiency, renewable sources like wind, solar, and geothermal, and fossil fuel power plants that capture and store their carbon pollution. Generation from existing carbon-free sources like conventional hydropower and nuclear power plants was assumed to remain unchanged from current levels.
The assessments uncovered a variety of plausible Repower America scenarios. These scenarios are illustrative: none represent the precise electricity mix in ten years. New and unanticipated technologies will emerge. Others will play a lesser role as competition drives the market. The exact timing of the ramp-down of conventional fossil fuel plants will be in part determined by the ramp-up of the various renewable plants, storage types, and grid advancement.
These scenarios demonstrate, however, that technology availability is not the factor limiting achievement of the Repower America goal. It will be possible to achieve a 100% clean power mix over the next ten years if appropriate policies are put in place to unleash the technologies’ vast potential.
The Scenarios
We considered one reference case and two alternative scenarios for the US electricity mix in a decade and compared them to today’s portfolio.1 For context, the bar chart below shows the 2006 electricity resource mix and the Energy Information Administration’s reference case forecast for 2020.
* 2006 DOE Actual Generation: The most recent data available, the 2006 mix from the US Department of Energy (DOE), is a good representation of today’s generation: predominantly coal, nuclear, natural gas, conventional hydropower, and small contributions from renewable energy.
* 2020 EIA Reference Case Projection (Repower America projected demand target): This is the DOE’s Energy Information Administration projected electricity generation in 2020 under the 2008 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case. It assumes that electricity generation grows from approximately 4 million GWh in 2006 to 4.7 million GWh in 2020. This 2020 level of generation represents the target for the Repower America scenarios. The EIA’s projections include additional conventional coal and natural gas with modest increases in renewable power to meet growing demand.
* Repower America Scenario A: Energy efficiency policies and programs reduce demand by 28%, nuclear and hydropower – neither of which emits CO2 – remain at current levels, America ramps up wind consistent with recent sectoral growth rates, solar thermal with storage is deployed at scale, and solar PV and geothermal grow at levels consistent with the projections of industry experts.
* Repower America Scenario B: Like Scenario A, includes a mix of efficiency, renewables, and existing generation but assumes fossil fuel industries deploy approximately 20 large coal and natural gas power plants that capture and sequester their CO2 emissions (these are known as coal and natural gas plants with CCS). Wind levels are reduced commensurate with the additional contribution from fossil power with CCS.
* Additional Scenarios: As referenced earlier, there are numerous possible pathways for reaching 100% clean electricity by 2020 — it would be impossible to predict exactly what technologies will comprise the mix. Once the transformation to a system that is highly efficient, renewables–based and connected via a unified smart grid commences, a variety of configurations become possible. For example, industry experts indicate that the 2020 generation mix could include larger contributions from geothermal, solar photovoltaics, and other rapidly emerging renewable technologies — along with new ways to improve efficiency. A modernized grid diminishes the magnitude of traditional baseload plant required for system stability, potentially allowing decreased reliance on aging nuclear power resources. For reference, the ranges described below represent Scenarios A, B, and portfolios with higher geothermal and solar PV levels supported by industry analysis.
The Scenario Details:
Start with carbon-free power at today’s levels: In all scenarios, today’s generation from nuclear and conventional hydropower is held constant. These two sources combined provide over 1 million GWh or 23% of the 2020 projected demand.
Immediately begin an efficiency upgrade – getting more benefit from the electricity we produce: With a suite of national policies and programs, energy efficiency improvements achieve 28% reduction from the 2020 projected demand. Implementing this efficiency target will immediately help families and businesses save money on utility bills.
Continue growth of geothermal power: Baseload geothermal power, which harnesses the energy stored below the ground and has been operating in the US for decades, will continue to grow during the time period. The scenarios assume a total of 20-25GW installed within 10 years or about 3%-4% of the projected demand (or 4%-5% of the annual generation). The scenarios assume the geothermal is mainly conventional hydrothermal power within the timeframe.
Ramp up solar thermal with storage, which can produce power at night: Based on proven technologies, grow the manufacturing capacity and installation of solar thermal power to levels that will support daytime and at least 8 hours of nighttime power. The analysis assumes 10%-13% of the projected demand (or 14%-18% of the annual generation), or 110-180GW.
Continue America’s leadership on wind: Continuing the double digit levels of growth seen over the past several years for this proven technology, scale up wind to 315-400 GW or between 23%-27% of the projected demand (and 33%-37% of the annual generation). This amount of wind would require 125,000-200,000 2-2.5 MW wind turbines distributed around the country in locations on-shore and off-shore. For comparison, 300,000 airplanes were built in the US during WWII.2
Continued solar PV growth at industry expected rates: Based on the average annual growth rate of 40% since 2000 and the recent announcements for gigawatt-scale solar PV projects in California, continue industry growth to achieve 3%-6% of the projected demand (or 4%-8% of the annual generation). At the lower end (Scenarios A and B), this is 65-75GW, which is in the range of the CleanEdge “Utility Solar Assessment” for 2020-2021. At the high end, it is 120-150 GW, which brings CleanEdge’s forecast for those levels forward by three years.3
Coal and natural gas that captures and safely stores the carbon pollution: Coal and natural gas power that are free of carbon pollution can be part of Repower America. Although no such power plants exist in America today, a variety of experts indicate that with significant research and testing, a few such pilot power plants may be in operation within 10 years. As a result, Scenario B assumes 20 GW of large scale plants or about 4% of the generation. Other than these facilities, which must remove at least 85% of the CO2 pollution and safely store it underground, fossil fuel generation is excluded from the Repower America clean electricity scenarios.
Other generation: The remainder of the generation will come from other sources. These include biomass power (the levels in EIA’s 2020 reference case are assumed), which can encompass many sources of carbon-free electricity like agricultural or wood residues and municipal waste, and, once it becomes proven, advanced hydropower that uses the energy from waves, currents, and tides (the scenarios do not assume specific levels of advanced hydro in the time frame).
Transmission and storage: An expanded and robust unified national smart grid that enables power everywhere to be interconnected, monitored, and supported by storage is an essential component of the Repower American plan. This requires a combination of upgrades and additional long-distance and short-distance high voltage transmission lines, advanced distribution systems with demand response and smart metering, and storage with today’s systems and new systems as they become available. See Unified National Smart Grid for more details.
Is materials or land availability a limiting factor?
There are virtually no material or land constraints in the scenarios. An analysis of the types of materials needed to Repower America shows that expansion of production and manufacture of many materials and components is required but the additional requirements are much less than or in line with other demands today. Using a 10-year average annual material requirement for steel, glass, and concrete, there does not appear to be any fundamental lack of materials. For example, the amount of steel required for production of 25,000 wind turbines in one year is equivalent to 8% of 2006 US steel production. Solar thermal requires significant production of glass, and wind requires significant expansion of materials for turbine blades. This manufacturing will expand jobs and local economies.
For land, wind estimates would require a total area approximately the size of West Virginia, although wind farms can be co-located with agriculture. And, if sited together, all of the estimated solar thermal would fit in an area equivalent to metropolitan Atlanta.
Experts Support Repower America Analysis
Validation
Find out what the experts are saying about the plan to Repower America with 100% clean electricity within 10 years.
References
* The Repower America goal is based on clean energy growth within the next decade. However, to ease comparisons of industry and government projections, the scenario analysis used a 2020 timeframe.
* http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/wwii_book_excerpt.html
* CleanEdge. “Utility Solar Assessment”. 2008.
A project of The Alliance for Climate Protection
Copyright © Repower America 2008. All Rights Reserved. Legal & Privacy | Contact Us
